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The Dissolution of Skepticism and how we got into this financial crisis

October 1st 2008 23:30
ORLY Cthulthu

Last week, Roger Ebert posted a strange, strange post on his Chicago-Times movie review site. It was called "Creationism: Your questions answered", a simple explanation of some of the views of Creationists:

" Q. How long did the Great Flood last?

A. We know that Noah was 600 years, two months and 17 days old when he sailed. Using that as a starting point and counting forward, Genesis tells us it lasted for 40, 150, 253, 314 or 370 days."

The internet community was confused and incredulous. It polarized a large segment of people against Ebert, believing that he had finally shown his cards. Somehow, his belief in creationism made his wonderful archive of movie reviews immediately worthless.

Several days later, Ebert posted the real reason behind his little game.

It turns out that he expected more people to be skeptical of his post, as regular readers should be able to sense the 'invisible quotation marks'. He cited a satirical essay by Jonathan Swift, advocating eating babies, as an example of knowing when to sense the irony.

Ebert quickly comes to the point: as a society, we've all become polarized to accept the narrow stream of information that comes our way. Whether we are liberal or conservative, religious or atheist, we flock to the internet because it tells us only the things that we already know we want to know.

From Ebert's post:

"Many political ads are an insult to the intelligence. Here I am not discussing politics. I am discussing credulity. If you were to see a TV ad charging that a politician supported "comprehensive sex education" for kindergarten children, would you (1) believe it, or (2) very much doubt it? The authors of the ad spent big money in a bet on the credulity and unquestioning thinking of the viewership. Ask yourself what such an ad believes about us."

What does this do with the financial crisis? To me, it's all tied together. The lack of skepticism and rational thinking led to the precipitation of runaway swarm behaviour.

Someone comes up to you and offers you a massive mortgage, one that you couldn't get before. They tell you not to worry because house prices always go up. What were you thinking?

You're a mortgage broker. You offer people loans at high interest rates to make up for the fact that they shouldn't get loans in the first place - but you don't care because you get high commissions, and you need that money to pay off the mansion that you can't afford. What were you thinking?

You're running an investment vehicle, packaging thousands of risky mortgages and reclassifying them as good investments. You're lighting your cigar with thousand dollar bills and snorting cocaine off a nubile young actress. What were you thinking?

At no point, did people stop to think: "Is this a good idea?"

That's not true - naturally, people probably did think that, but those people were eclipsed and drowned out by the surging multitudes, ready to ignore common sense and leap at the opportunity. To be rational and hesitant, these are qualities that can quickly reshuffle you to the bottom of the deck.

The word opportunity is, in modern times, inexorably linked to America and the American Dream. We admire who take advantage of opportunity, and we desire to have more opportunities. Opportunity is a shiny word, though, one that stands in place for many other words: challenges, change, ambition - but also greed, immorality and hubris.

Sadly, I can't say that I wouldn't have done the same. If I were paid by some giant investment bank to manage one of these mortgage packages, I probably would have done so with a big Armani smile. I know this because I'm also one of the unskeptical - no matter how much I try.

We are who we are, it seems.

To finish off on a down note: I recently confided one of my greatest fears to my girlfriend.

"The thing I fear most," I said, eyes downcast, "is that we'll tell our children of the days when there was so much wealth and resources in the world that we actually threw away food..."



*this Cthulthu image is from Defective Yeti

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Comments
9 Comments. [ Add A Comment ]

Comment by Anonymous

October 2nd 2008 01:41
Yet Another Brilliant essay,Prof C!

Comment by Damo

October 2nd 2008 02:46
In the end everyone want to rule the world.

Comment by Carolyn Codon

October 2nd 2008 06:17
Hey, great post!

All I can say at the moment is - they had it coming!

I know on a personal level I've been playing silly games with credit, but I know millions are worse (and worse off) than me.

I'm still waiting for signs of contrition though - there's been none that I've seen.

To quote Bart Simpson: 'I didn't do it!'

and to quote Homer: 'D'oh'

Comment by JohnDoe

October 2nd 2008 08:20
Fantastic work Cib,

Witty and honest, I like your style.

Comment by AP Red

October 2nd 2008 19:32
Honest with a good, fundamental understanding of the subject.

Great Post

Comment by Cibbuano

October 2nd 2008 22:10
anon, thanks for reading. Sarcasm?

Damo, I think about that, also - we'd all like things to run our way, but that means, necessarily, making things unpleasant for other people.

carolyn, thanks! They had it coming... yes, I suppose we all did. You know who I feel sorry for, though? The endangered animals... if the economy plummets, talk of carbon emissions and conservation go out the window.

JD, thanks, man! Ebert's post struck a chord with me.

AP, sadly, I feel like an understanding of the subject is what I'm missing. I read a lot about the current crisis but it's all a tangle of confusion.


Comment by Lilla

October 2nd 2008 22:26
CIb,

Just echoing the priase here already ...

Lilla ...

Comment by Janet Collins

October 6th 2008 12:14
Great post again Cibbuano,

The last comment says it all. "Throwing away food" - Just think how many people say these days "remember when we used to stand under the sprinklers". Pretty real your words.,

Janet

Comment by Cibbuano

October 6th 2008 21:18
lilla, thanks!

janet, I feel bad when we throw away food, but I'm not sure what to do otherwise. Veggies seem to go bad so quickly!

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